Neiman's analysis was apposite to the data with which he was able to work. A critic might say that the data was incomplete or problematic and could not yield a definitive answer, and I thought his qualifiers made it pretty clear he understood that. -- Stephan On 4 May 2008, at 15:20, Jurretta Heckscher wrote: > On May 4, 2008, at 12:47 PM, S. Corneliussen wrote: >> >> >> True, the misreporting of valid DNA evidence and the outright >> misuse of statistical science originated among people representing >> science, not the history profession, though credulous historians >> unskeptically accepted the statistical stuff. >> >> > Mr. Corneliussen, I assume that your allusion to the use (or > misuse) of statistical science refers to the article by Fraser D. > Neiman, Director of Archaeology at Monticello, that appeared in the > William and Mary Quarterly circa 2000? As I recall, it applied > statistical analysis to the probable dates of SH's conceptions and > the known dates of TJ's presence at Monticello to demonstrate the > extreme improbability that anyone else was the father of her children. > > This did not, of course, absolutely rule out the paternity of some > other man whose presence at Monticello invariably correlated with > TJ's. And Dr. Neiman is of course an archaeologist (and a very > good one), not a statistician. However, along with the DNA > analysis, his statistically-based conclusion is indeed the other > piece of scientific--as opposed to traditionally historical-- > research that many historians, myself included, have found compelling. > > I am probably not alone among such historians in lacking the > statistical training to evaluate Dr. Neiman's study as science. If > his study is indeed, in your opinion as a scientist, "outright > misuse of statistical science," could you possibly give us a brief > explanation in laymen's terms of why you believe this to be so? > > If you can, thanks very much. > > --Jurretta Heckscher > > ______________________________________ > To subscribe, change options, or unsubscribe please see the > instructions at > http://listlva.lib.va.us/archives/va-hist.html ______________________________________ To subscribe, change options, or unsubscribe please see the instructions at http://listlva.lib.va.us/archives/va-hist.html