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April 2008

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From:
sharon Peery <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
sharon Peery <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 25 Apr 2008 11:49:44 +0000
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This has been a good discussion with good questions, and I just want to add
a couple of comments.  The results anyone gets are based on a calculation of
statistical probabilities, not a subject most people like very much.  You are given
a probability, based on your results, that you share a common ancestor with
someone.  The more markers you share, the higher the probability in a given
number of generations.  These probabilities have been worked out by "Harvard
professor" types.  I have assumed that the math is correct because I am too
lazy to work it through myself, AND that these types understand genetic changes
over time well enough that what they plugged into their calculations is all the
information needed to make the calculations reliable.  But these sorts of assump-
tions, by me and everyone else, are not "science" -- they are "belief."
 
In addition, if we do not understand what people will do these days to make a
lot of money, we're not paying attention.  Most of us have no idea what these
labs are doing and how they are doing it.  The less reliable ones will have a lot of
reason to come up with results their customers will like, and there is nothing to
stop them.
 
DNA testing seems to be a useful tool, but there is a possibility also that it is a
fad and a money-maker.  The best advice seems to be that if you are going to do
it, do it as part of a larger surname project, such as the Davidson project.  And
try to find out something about the lab before you send them a wad of your hard-
earned cash!                                               Sharon Peery>
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