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From:
Donald Locke <[log in to unmask]>
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Discussion of research and writing about Virginia history <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:38:49 +0000
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Answered my own question lol. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_DNA_data 

Now I can physically see the test results and Y Haplo Groups involved. Presuming the wiki site is up to date, the participants have not gone to the 67 marker level yet, and that is a serious issue in their research. If they are in fact relying on anything less then the 37 marker level, as far as I am concerned they have not tested near enough markers to make a serious attempt to prove the connections they are claiming. 

With that said, Jefferson's being in Y Haplo K2, which has been reassigned as Y Haplo T. Considering the rarity of this Y Haplo Group, even with a simple 12/12 match clearly does highly suggest Hemings is an exact match at the lower marker level if I am reading this data correct. 

I don't care if Hemmings is an exact 67/67 match to Jefferson descendants, it can not ever prove TJ was the father of the Hemmings child, it would only prove they shared a common male ancestor is all. Any number of the Jefferson's could be the father, so it is a very rash statement to claim TJ himself is the father of Hemmings. The best they can claim is to be a Jefferson descendant, but would be jumping the gun to state they are TJ's direct descendant. 

As a DNA project Admin. myself, I would no doubts highly encourage all the Jefferson's and Hemming to go all the way with thier testing to the 67 marker level, just to see exactly how close their markers are to each other at the highest level. With Hemming and Jefferson's both being in Haplo 
K2 / T, considering the rarity of this Haplo Group, is a very clear indication of a kinship here, but exactly how close of a kinship no one can know until all the parties involved are upgrade, and all SNP tested and confirmed. 

But with all that said, even considering the rarity of K2, it is still very possible that at the 67 marker level, there is a slim chance that Hemmings could have to many marker mutations to even be considered to be related. Since 2005 in my own studies, I have seen several such events where men were a very good match at the 12 and 25 marker level, even at the 37 marker level, only to find out that at the 67 marker level, there were far to many mutations that occured and proved they could not be closely related. The chances in my mind are very remote that a 2nd K2 male lineage lived in the area, but it isn't out of the question! 

Even as rare as Y Haplo H1a is in the USA and in the whole world, I have already discovered Lock, Ingram, Bailey, Jewell, Hite, Ruffin all of Virginia are in this rare Y Haplo H1a. So to claim that just because a Y Haplo Group is rare, does not mean they are the only individuals in a given area who represent that rare Y Haplo Group. The chances of 2 male lineages unrelated to each other and both in K2 / T Haplo Group is very remote I agree, but not impossible considering my own Y Haplo H* DNA studies being done on Virginia descendants. 
So my own independant DNA studies on Y Haplo H1a which is also considered rare, here I have already identified up to 5 individual family's from Virginia in this rare H1a already. So it isn't impossible to believe there could be other K2 / T in Virginia whom could be the father of Hemmings. 

If in fact none of the participants have upgraded to the 67 marker level, to me as a DNA project Admin, they have not "proven" their case yet. 
And if in fact none have ordered the SNP test to confirm their Y Haplo Group(s), then they still have much work ahead of them to prove their case. 

If I am reading their study correctly, they have at best gone to the 25 or 27 marker level, not near enough markers tested to prove their case in my eyes. And really, much has been changed since the 1998 testing and to resolve their own questions, they by all rights should be using todays updated technology to prove their case here. 

Here is a good example of what I am speaking of. Consider my own testing here. 
I am a 12/12, 24/25 match to Hite, but when he upgraded to the 37 marker level, we are now a 32/37 match. So with in the 26th to 37th markers, we had 4 more mutations that occured in just that panel. We already had 1 mutation on the first 2 panels, so in the 3rd panel there were an additional 4 mutations, so as far as Hite goes, there is little need to try to prove a close kinship with me, considering he already has 5 mutations by the 37th marker. 

What that means is Hite has a 93.98% chance to have shared a common male ancestor with me with in the last 24 generations. 
If and when he upgrades to the 67 marker level, we can highly anticipate he will have even more mutations to clearly rule out any kinship between our 2 family's, even though we are both in the same rare Y Haplo Group H1a and both families from Virginia. 
FTDNA's description tells me Hite and I having 5 mutations = 
Distance: 5 - Only Possibly Related 

So a it is very possible that with todays technology and testing at the 67 marker level, what they knew back in 1998, may not at all be correct in todays terms. 
No one can tell me that because of the rarity of a Haplo Group that proves a family connection based only on the fact that it is rare. I myself have proven multiple Virginia family's whom are in Y Haplo H1a which is also considered rare in the world, and more rare in England and the USA just like K2. 
So it can not be the basis of their study to claim that because the Jefferson's are in K2 / T Haplo, that because it is rare, that there can not be any other unrelated K2 / T of Virginia. To presume that would be a serious mistake! They all are very closely matched ( the H1a's) at the lower marker levels, yet when all involved upgrade to at least the 37 to 67 marker levels, only then did we learn there were no close matches between the Virginia famlies in H1a. 
So in fact, we have at least 5 distinct unrelated DNA strings all with Virginia ties and all in a rare Y Haplo Group H1a. That tells me, many folks working on the Jefferson case, have no doubts in my mind jumped to conclusions with out going all the way in the testing. 
It is very possible they have upgraded and that I just do not know about it yet. But with the available data that I was able to locate online, tells me at that time, they obviously jumped to conclusions basing their facts on the fact that K2 / T is rare with out upgrading to the highest marker levels. 

Last Bennett Greenspan updated me on Y Haplo H*, he told me Y Haplo H* was found in less then 2% of the world population, yet I have clearly discovered up to 5 families in Y Haplo H* just from Virginia! And that is just the 5 I do know about, there maybe more that I do not know about yet! 
Talk about finding a needle in a hay stack, I found it 5 times in just one state! lol. I am investigating a rare Y Haplo Group, which just happens to have strong ties to Virginia, as well as with Maryland, and North and South Carolina. 
So they can not convince me what so ever that their claim of being in a rare Y Haplo Group proves their kinship using only the lower marker levels. 
No one can tell me that because it is rare, must prove they are related with out using todays technology using the highest marker level available. 
Just because it is a rare Y Haplo Group, does not at all mean there were not other families of Virginia whom are also in K2 / T Haplo Group. 

I agree, the chances of a 2nd unrelated K2 / T having ties to this event, seems highly unlikey even to me, but not at all impossible! 
They would convince me of their kinship using todays technology at the highest marker level with the addition of the SNP test. 

Here is another case in point. My direct line from Virginia, married a Dennison from Virginia who's grand mother is an Ingram also of Virginia. 
Ingram and Lock both of Virginia are in Y Haplo H1a, yet this Lock / Dennison marriage took place in Texas. 
Here we have a H1a / H1a connection in our tree, yet we are at the moment a 31/37 match to each other and waiting for the 67 marker upgrade to be completed. So 2 Virginia famlies whom are in Y Haplo H1a, yet are distinct DNA strings that are at this point, are only remotely if at all related to each other, still have a paper trail to connect our lineages together. Do you all realize just how remote the odds are that 2 unrelated Y Haplo H1a family's accidently married in to the same Virginia families? With them kind of odds, I should buy a lotto ticket! lol. 

At the 37 marker level, Ingram only has a 85.37% chance to have shared a common male ancestor with me with in the last 24 generations. 
So I think it is very biased of some to suggest that because Jefferson's are in K2 / T and Hemmings is also in K2 / T using only the lower marker levels, to presume they must be related. I have on my own accord proven that even a rare Y Haplo Group like H1a, can be found in larger numbers in a given state, that it is very possible for multiple families with in the same state to be found in that same rare Y Haplo Group. 
If I have on my own found multiple H1a families of Virginia, then we must presume it is at all possible to find multiple K2 / T famlies also of Virginia. 
Just because it is a rare Haplo Group, does not mean it can not exist in higher numbers in any given state, because my research clearly proves it can happen. Not even FTDNA or other companies knew this fact until I pointed the facts out to them. I on my own contacted all the H1a's that I found and asked each person who they traced back to and on my own discovered up to 5 H1a famlies that I can account for with Virginia ties. So it is not at all impossible to have multiple K2 / T families of Virginia besides the Jefferson's is all I am saying. I now do not include Jewell in this account because it appears we now have a paper trial to link him to my Lock's, with out that paper trail he would be a 6th, but with that paper trail I now only have 5 families. 

I do agree, the odds say most likely Hemmings in fact shared a common male Jefferson ancestor, but until they use todays technology, not 1998 technology, they have not in my mind, proven their case yet. But to presume TJ himself was the father of Hemmings is at the very least a far stretch of the truth, because it could have been any number of Jefferson's who could be the father of Hemmings. But knowing what DNA data that I can find online, with that data, even stating Hemmings is a Jefferson descendant is to me a far stretch, though very likely and plausable in my mind. 
Having 2 unrelated K2 / T Haplo families involved in the exact same piece of history, well the odds tell me that it would be very remote at best to have a 2nd K2 / T related to this historical event in time. Not impossible, just doesn't seem likely to me. 
I do agree that with the data that I know about so far, that it is clearly wrong for anyone to presume TJ must be the father, when it could be any number of Jefferson men who could as easily be the father. 

Genetic Genealogy can not at this time, prove who the father was, it can only tell you yes or no if 2 men shared a common male ancestor. It can only give you stastical odds of when 2 men shared a common male ancestor. And if in fact none of the participants involved have tested all the way to the 67 marker level which seems to be the case here, they in my mind have not done all they can to help prove or disprove this case. 
If I were their DNA project Admin. I would be encouraging all involved to upgrade just to prove how closely they do DNA match to one another at the highest marker level. This is also very important for the Jefferson's involved to upgrade for no other reason then to see how many marker mutations have occured between them. Comparing the marker mutations between the Jefferson's, presuming there are any mutations to start with, would be interesting to compare to Hemmings test at the 67 marker level. 

At this time using my own personal experinces since 2005, I at this time can not support this Jefferson study using what data I can find online. 
Like I say, I do agree that it seems very plausable Hemmings did share a common male ancestor with the Jefferson's, but if they have not gone all the way in DNA testing, I say they haven't yet proven their case yet. 

And according to the DNA experts, this kind of DNA testing was not intended to be used to compare to men of other surnames, it is intended to be used to compare to men of the same surname. 
So even a perfect 67/67 DNA match between men of different surnames, with out a paper trail to prove the connection, are considered not related with out that solid paper trail. Though most would all agree, even I would agree, that a perfect 67/67 match would clearly indicate a family connection. 
But in the DNA world, 2 men of different surnames who are a great DNA match is called DNA Convergence, meaning yes they share very similar, even exact markers, but with out that solid paper trail, are considered not related. So this study is clearly ignoring the DNA rules. 

If I were the one giving the advice to the Jefferson's and Hemmings, I would highly suggest they all use todays technology at the highest marker level to put this issue to rest once and for all. But if we all follow the general rule of thumb in DNA testing, this is at the least a case of DNA convergence because they are comparing 2 different surnames with out a solid paper trail to prove the kinship at this time. 
For me personally, I do believe it is very plausable Hemmings shared a common male ancestor with just the little bit of data that I have read so far. 
But that can not be a final conclusion with out higher testing. 

I will also point out in the Wiki web page, that just because 2 Jefferson's in the UK are a 17/17 match and are in K2, again is a far stretch to say they are directly related with only 17 markers tested. Again they relied on lower marker levels to compare men in a rare Y Haplo Group, and to make any final conclusions using only 17 markers is a stepping on thin ice. 
I have 2 Bailey's in Y Haplo H1a, whom are a 61/67 match to each other with no paper trail to connect their 2 branches. They obviously are not closely related, but are considered related even with out the paper trial to connect their branches together. That is my whole point here, if Jefferson's and Hemmings were all to be upgraded to the 67 marker level, they may just learn there are just enough marker mutations to learn they can not be closely related, but are more distantly related then this historical event in time. We can not know until all involved are all upgraded using the exact same DNA company using the highest marker level. 
Yes using the exact same DNA company is a must in my mind, to use multiple companies would defeat their goal at this point. 

I said my 2 cents worth, off my soap box lol. Don't take what I said overly serious, just my own thoughts to ponder this over. 
Don 

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