Anyone wishing a copy of the Wash Post article by a Wash. Statistical
professional group please contact me and I will forward a copy.
Herb Barger
-----Original Message-----
From: Discussion of research and writing about Virginia history
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Jurretta J. Heckscher
Sent: Monday, February 23, 2009 4:16 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [VA-HIST] TJF re-asserting statistical science?
Steve, I'd suggest you contact the staff at the Jefferson Library to ask
your question: http://www.monticello.org/library/refform.html. If anyone
is likely to know--or be able to find--the answer, it is they.
However, I'm guessing they might also need a bit more information from your
friend, such as the subject or location of the exhibit where the caption was
found, when your friend saw it, and so forth, so that they can determine
what the caption writer was referring to.
If another statistical study has been done, I agree that it might be
interesting to know about it. On the other hand, the Jefferson Library
staff may not know about the science-referee Web site you've put together,
and might find it helpful to know about that.
Best wishes,
--Jurretta
On Sun, 22 Feb 2009 09:24:18 -0500, Steven T. Corneliussen
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>[Retransmitting from my Jefferson Lab e-mail because the copy I
>transmitted from home never appeared.]
>
>A friend who knows of my interest in the ways in which the authority of
>science is invoked in the Hemings-TJ controversy was visiting a new Thomas
>Jefferson Foundation exhibit and jotted down this caption: "Based on
>documentary, scientific, and statistical studies and oral history, many
>historians now believe that years after his wife's death Thomas Jefferson
>was the father of Sally Hemings' children." The friend is pretty sure that
>that's very close to verbatim.
>
>Leaving aside the old discussion about oral history vs. oral tradition,
>and concerning only the mention of statistics: It's possible that all
>that's meant is, for example, Winthrop Jordan's often-recalled
>nonquantitative observations about the qualitatively intriguing Hemings-TJ
>Monticello conceptions coincidences. But in the past, the TJF has, I
>believe, explicitly cited the outright quantitative statistical study that
>appeared in the William and Mary Quarterly nearly a decade ago. That study
>confidently invoked the full authority of statistical science in
>professing to have proven TJ's paternity of six Hemings children. That
>quantitative, not just qualitative, study involved probability theory,
>Monte Carlo simulations, and Bayes's theorem.
>
>I would be grateful for answers or comments on three questions: Does
>anybody know if the TJF still means deliberately to cite that study as
>legitimate scientific evidence? Does anybody know if any other such
>_quantitative_ statistical study has appeared anywhere? If so, does
>anybody know if the TJF is now citing any such study?
>
>Thanks very much.
>
>Steve Corneliussen
>Poquoson, Virginia
>
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